Publications: Notes at the Margin

Forecasting Wars: OPEC Feels Growing Irrelevance (June 17, 2024)

 

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais characterized the International Energy Agency’s five-year forecast of oil supply and demand, released this month, as a “dangerous narrative” because it shows global oil use peaking by the decade’s end. Al Ghais wrote that the forecast would discourage investment in oil exploration and that reduction would lead to higher prices and greater price volatility.

 

The secretary general’s statement is a plaintive cry from the executive of an organization confronting irrelevance. The agreement between OPEC and OPEC+ countries, like all pacts among commodity-producing nations, has lasted only a few years. Al Ghais’ words are the clearest admission yet by oil producers that they are losing control of the market.

 

To receive the full report along with future issues of Notes at the Margin, please Contact Us or send us an Information Request for subscription information.