Publications: Notes at the Margin

Stagnating Gasoline Use: "It's the Economy, Stupid" (June 10, 2024)

 

The US and, to an extent, the European economies are bifurcating. Those with very high incomes are doing very well as their wealth increases. Most people, though, are being squeezed and are likely already experiencing a recession. The near or actual recession for those earning less than, say, $75,000 (almost 60 percent of the US population) forces consumers to make difficult choices, especially given the rapid price rises. History shows that gasoline use drops significantly more than consumption of other goods at such times. At this juncture, we expect US and probably European gasoline use this summer to be lower than in 2023.

 

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