Publications: Notes at the Margin

The Coming Winter from Hell (August 15, 2022)

 

At some point in the future, historians will describe December 2022 to April 2023 as “the winter from hell.” Forecasters today are blissfully ignorant of the impending disaster. Commentators on business TV such as Bloomberg’s Alix Steel are cheerfully disregarding the looming problems. Even energy traders seem to believe the winter fuel situation will not be terribly difficult.

 

Absent a quick, decisive drop in global economic activity or a change in heart by Vladimir Putin, they will be very, very wrong. This winter will be a nightmare. An energy cancer has spread through Europe and is metastasizing across the globe. It is not being treated successfully. Policy efforts so far have failed. The consequence could be government interventions in energy markets of a magnitude not seen since World War II.

 

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